A fifth of all PCs shipped in the third quarter of 2024 were equipped to support artificial intelligence (AI), Canalys has reported in its latest PC market report. The Canalys data shows that AI-capable PC shipments hit 13.3 million in the quarter, accounting for 20% of all PCs sold.
The analyst firm defines AI-capable PCs as desktops and notebooks that include a chipset for dedicated AI workloads, such as a neural processing unit (NPU).
Canalys reported that Windows devices accounted for a majority of AI-capable PC shipments for the first time, capturing a 53% share. What is significant is that these Windows-certified devices, known as Copilot+ PCs, are based on the Qualcomm Snapdragon ARM-based chip rather than an x86-compatible processor from the likes of Intel or AMD.
Discussing the data, Canalys principal analyst Ishan Dutt said: “Copilot+ PCs equipped with Snapdragon X series chips enjoyed their first full quarter of availability, while AMD brought Ryzen AI 300 products to the market and Intel officially launched its Lunar Lake series. However, both x86 chipset vendors are still awaiting Copilot+ PC support for their offerings from Microsoft, which is expected to arrive this month.”
While the Windows 11 refresh cycle and processor roadmaps will continue to drive penetration, however, Canalys believes there may be a reluctance to buy the new technology, which is designed to provide on-device AI.
“Despite the positive momentum, significant work must still be done to convince both channel partners and end customers of the benefits of AI-capable PCs,” said Dutt. “This is especially true for more premium offerings, such as Copilot+ PCs, which Microsoft requires to have at least 40 NPU TOPS [trillions of operations per second] alongside other hardware specifications.”
There is a sense that these devices appear to be targeting the premium end of the PC market. For instance, even with Black Friday deals, Currys’ cheapest AI-capable device is currently an HP OmniBook X 14in laptop Copilot+ PC, which is on sale at £799, reduced from £999. The most expensive is a £2,149 Microsoft 15in Surface laptop Copilot+ PC. The majority of the devices listed are over £1,000, which may put them beyond the budget of many organisations.
In fact, just under a third (31%) of PC resellers do not plan to sell Copilot+ PCs in 2025, according to Canalys, while a further 34% expect such devices to account for less than 10% of their PC sales next year. “With Windows 10 end of support now less than a year away, the coming quarters represent a critical opportunity to drive a significant portion of an aged installed base to be upgraded to an AI-capable PC,” Dutt added.
Given the premium these AI-capable devices command, Canalys noted that manufacturers are working with software firms to help them sell the benefits of AI PCs. For instance, at its Imagine AI event in September, HP showcased its collaboration with software providers to deliver on-device AI experiences. Lenovo, meanwhile, has focused on embedding proprietary AI tools and agents into its PCs, such as Creator Zone, Learning Zone and Lenovo AI Now.
“For vendors like Lenovo and Dell, whose offerings extend beyond PCs, on-device AI will be a key component of the delivery of broader, more holistic AI services and solutions,” said Canalys analyst Kieren Jessop.
The Canalys data also reveals how Apple is not directly competing with Microsoft. Since 2020, Apple has shifted away from using Intel processors to its own chips based on ARM architecture. It is now shipping devices with the M3 chip, the third generation of so-called Apple “silicon”. This potentially makes Apple devices running ARM-based hardware a more mature offering than the mainstay of PC manufacturers, which have jumped on the Copilot+ bandwagon.
“Apple’s strategic approach in this landscape is distinct,” said Jessop. “It is leveraging its vertically integrated ecosystem to create features that do not need to directly compete with Microsoft’s suite of productivity tools, such as Copilot Pro for Microsoft 365, which is compatible with macOS. Apple can instead focus its differentiation at the hardware and operating system level, positioning itself against Windows OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] in an effort to make market share gains during the ongoing refresh cycle.”